DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131610
SWODY1
SPC AC 131607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A RATHER STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF FL/GA/SC. LOCAL VAD DATA AND MORNING
RAOBS SHOW 50-60 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH ARE
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR OCCASIONAL
UPDRAFT ROTATION. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ARE
GREATLY LIMITING CAPE VALUES TO BELOW 500 J/KG.
NEVERTHELESS...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UNTIL
STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE. REFERENCE WW 825 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG HEATING LATER TODAY. RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. MID LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE RATHER DIFFUSE AS AREA REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL
RIDGING. HOWEVER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG LEE-TROUGH
OVER WESTERN NEB/EASTERN CO AS WELL AS OTHER REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RISK AREA.
ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORMS WILL POSE A
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PARTS OF NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF BTV.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..HART/GRAMS.. 08/13/2008

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