SWODY1
SPC AC 211946
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND ND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL/SERN GA/SERN
SC...
...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT INTO WRN AND CENTRAL ND...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN ND ON
TRAILING FRINGE OF AN UPPER VORT MAX NOW SHIFTING NNEWD INTO
MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN WEAKLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM.
WHILE SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION -- AND AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE -- IS FORECAST ACROSS MT...GREATER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL ND AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO WRN ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR/SPREAD EWD WITH TIME.
A 70-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM/ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS IN MT. HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH STORMS WHICH DEVELOP LATER
OVER ND...AS GREATER INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE SHEAR
SUGGEST MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT -- WITH ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT MOVING ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL ND.
...SERN SD/SERN GA/NERN FL...
T.S. FAY IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING BACK ONSHORE N OF DAB
/DAYTONA BEACH FL/...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WNWWD ACROSS
N FL THROUGH THE PERIOD PER LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. WHILE NO
TORNADOES AND LITTLE IF ANY LOW-LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITHIN ONSHORE CONVECTION...THE MORE FAVORABLE NERN QUADRANT OF THE
STORM HAS REMAINED MAINLY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM MOVES
INLAND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT ONSHORE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FOR
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 08/21/2008
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