DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241602
SWODY1
SPC AC 241559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WIND FIELDS AROUND REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES SLOWLY FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FOR FORMATION OF STRONG UPDRAFTS.
SINCE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING HAS ROTATED AROUND THE CENTER AND
INLAND ACROSS AL...SURFACE TEMPS ARE CLIMBING THRU THE LOW/MID 80S
WHICH COULD RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 500-750 J/KG. THUS WILL BUMP UP
THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES SOME THRU THE AFTERNOON AND ADD A SLIGHT
RISK.

FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS AREA REFER TO MCD 2147.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD UPSLOPE INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NERN
CO/ERN WY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM REF BOU AND RIW 12Z SOUNDINGS...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON VICINITY ERN WY BORDER INTO NERN CO.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT IS MARGINAL FOR OTHER THAN
MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT WITH MLCAPES TO 2000
J/KG A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 21Z
WITH LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE
GENERALLY WEAK NWLY STEERING FLOW AND GREATER CINH.

...NE OH/NW PA INTO WRN/CNTRL NY...
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF UPR IMPULSE REINFORCING ONTARIO TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE UVV ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS REGION LATER TODAY. A NARROW
AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...BUT WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT SBCAPE TO
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. SCTD STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT

AND LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER PARTS OF OH...PA AND NY. WEAK
DEEP SHEAR WILL FAVOR PULSE/MULTICELL STRUCTURES. RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW LVL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 08/24/2008

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