SWODY2
SPC AC 060600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2008
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SWD ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES DRIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WRN NOAM.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
THE ERN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO GA...THEN WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND WNWWD INTO THE OK/N TX VICINITY. OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD/OFF THE E COAST...WHILE SAGGING SWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES/INTO TX.
FURTHER N...A BROAD ZONE OF ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WRN FRINGES OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
...THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ADVANCING
SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS REGION. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR
OCCURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.
STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...WITH
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
S OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM ROUGHLY THE MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE
PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA.
ONE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS ERN NC...WHERE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY OFFSHORE -- COULD REDEVELOP INLAND
AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATES EWD
INTO THIS REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WHILE
APPROACHING DURING AN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS UPPER FEATURE
COULD SUPPORT AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSHORE FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT...BUT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES COULD BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...THE PAC NW...
PERSISTENT BELT OF 40 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE PAC NW...AHEAD OF A LARGE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE ABOVE A FAIRLY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. COMBINATION OF
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL THUS
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST FROM PARTS OF
WA/OREGON EWD INTO WRN MT.
..GOSS.. 08/06/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment