SWODY2
SPC AC 070542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2008
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...WITH A SLOWLY-MOVING TROUGH INVOF THE W COAST...A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/CANADIAN PRAIRIE...AND A SECOND TROUGH OVER
THE EAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER FROM THE SOUTHEAST WWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO TX. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD
FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...WHILE A LEE TROUGH
PREVAILS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
...PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING EWD ATOP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BOTH MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WLYS AND SUPPORT -- IN THE FORM OF UVV -- FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY
SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WA AND OREGON AND EWD
INTO MT...WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
-- WHICH COULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DEEP
MIXED LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS...AIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
...THE SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL AGAIN FOCUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...IN MOIST/UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW /20 TO 25 KT/ AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/MULTICELL
CLUSTERS. ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND
DAMAGE WARRANTS THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS
FORECAST.
...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS HINT THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER NEW ENGLAND TO SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR ACROSS FAR
ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND -- ON ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH --
WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
ATTM...QUESTIONS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOWS/TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION REMAIN TOO
UNCERTAIN TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY SEVERE PROBABILITY.
..GOSS.. 08/07/2008
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