SWODY2
SPC AC 150543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG SWRN FRINGE OF STRONGER NWLY FLOW. THIS
REGION WILL BE GLANCED BY ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL FORCE
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NRN MN/WI/U.P. OF MI BY 17/00Z. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM.
...NEW ENGLAND/SERN U.S...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO NEW ENGLAND AT MID-HIGH LEVELS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT FLOW
WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINING AT LEAST MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE WIND SHIFT. STRONGEST HEATING
WILL OCCUR INLAND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD AID
UPDRAFT INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN AT
LOWER LATITUDES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAPID WARMING ACROSS
NH/VT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS. IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN EXPECTED THEN A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THIS REGION.
ANOTHER ZONE OF POTENTIAL CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE DEEPENING SWLY FLOW WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR SEWD-MOVING MULTI-CELL STRUCTURES...OR PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHETHER THE FRONTAL
POSITION WILL HOLD INLAND OR PERHAPS SURGE TO THE COAST...ULTIMATELY
LIMITING AREAL EXTENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...SWRN U.S...
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SLOWLY SWD ACROSS CO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS EVOLUTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT
STRONGER FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS INTO NRN AZ/NM. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN AZ INTO NWRN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES
ACTUALLY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AS 40-50KT FLOW WILL LIKELY EXIST IN
THE UPPER THIRD OF DEEPER CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SEWD AT ROUGHLY
15-20KT.
..DARROW.. 08/15/2008
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