SWODY2
SPC AC 160540
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CO INTO SWRN KS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WRN THROUGH SRN
PERIPHERY OF LOW CIRCULATION...EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION
INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN SO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...30-35KT IN MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF NM AND WEST TX WHERE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE CONSIDERABLY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG
THIS ZONE...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND CAP REMOVAL.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL ENHANCE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NM
INTO NWRN TX. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER ERN NM WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IF
CLOUD COVER DOES NOT IMPEDE HEATING. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AS THEY
PROPAGATE INTO NWRN TX.
...GREAT LAKES...
DEEP NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PROVINCES OF SCNTRL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ENSURE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THIS
PLUME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND UNFOCUSED.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F WILL
BE ADEQUATE FOR PARCEL ASCENT WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL FORCING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THIS OTHERWISE NONDESCRIPT FLOW REGIME
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
...SOUTH FL...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO CURVE IN A MORE NWLY DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT APPROACHES THE SRN TIP OF THE FL
PENINSULA. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS CIRCULATION CENTER WILL NOT
APPROACH LAND UNTIL EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD. IF INTENSIFICATION
OCCURS THEN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED LATE DAY2 INTO DAY3 OVER THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 08/16/2008
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