SWODY2
SPC AC 210522
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY...FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM
CNTRL MN...SWWD TO NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. WITH STRONGEST FLOW
ALOFT EXPECTED TO LAG THE SFC WIND SHIFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITH MORE ROBUST TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
LATER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST...BUT LESS LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT
OUTLOOK A SLIGHT RISK...BUT RATHER KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT 5
PERCENT. THIS COULD BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
...FAY...
IT APPEARS FAY WILL DRIFT BACK WWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH NO MEANINGFUL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED...SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
SUPPORT A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..DARROW.. 08/21/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment