SWODY2
SPC AC 241716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND MOVES STEADILY EWD ACROSS
THE NERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN FEATURE
SHOULD CROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WRN TROUGH -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/SEWD...CROSSING MT AND
MOVING INTO WY/NRN UT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...REMNANTS OF FAY SHOULD LINGER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.
STRONG HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO YIELD AROUND 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH WEAK SELY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT COULD RESULT IN THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITHIN ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP --
AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR HAIL AND/OR
WIND.
...ELSEWHERE...
REMNANTS OF FAY SHOULD REMAIN INVOF SRN MS THROUGH THIS PERIOD PER
LATEST NHC FORECASTS...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FORECAST. WHILE
AMPLE SHEAR WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA THIS
FORECAST AS TORNADO THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO BE LESS THEN 5%.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. WHILE FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND EARLY
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF NEW ENGLAND...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE A SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA ATTM.
..GOSS.. 08/24/2008
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