SWODY2
SPC AC 151730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS ON
SATURDAY. WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES...PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BROAD TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
OVER THE ROCKIES...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER CO/FAR SOUTHERN WY.
...NEW ENGLAND STATES...
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM
UPSTATE NY INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LIKELY TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE FEATURE...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING BENEATH COOL PROFILES ALOFT /-16C AT 500 MB/ WILL YIELD
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MLCAPE TO
1000-1250 J/KG. OWING TO BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RELATIVELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/SMALL LINE
SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW MARGINAL/SHORT DURATION
SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT...SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY
AS WELL.
...CAROLINAS/GA...
SOUTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN STATES TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN GA. SUFFICIENT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD
TO INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN/SOUTHERN GA. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND SOME SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...AZ/NM/SOUTHERN CO...
AS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER CO...SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER
FLOW/COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW/COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALOFT...SEVERE
HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
...UPPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SEEMINGLY CONSIDERABLY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT.
..GUYER.. 08/15/2008
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