SWODY3
SPC AC 060728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2008
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST/SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AS A SECOND TROUGH
INITIALLY OFF THE COAST OF WRN NOAM SHIFTS SLOWLY INLAND...LEAD
SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF
COAST STATES...WHILE SHIFTING SWD ACROSS TX. THE FRONT ACROSS TX
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS -- ON
THE WRN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH -- TURNS MORE SLY WITH TIME IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WRN
UPPER TROUGH.
...THE SOUTHEAST...
STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST INVOF THE LINGERING FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY DESTABILIZES. ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PULSE STORMS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WELL N OF
THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE
AND WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED -- FOCUSED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA THIS FORECAST.
...THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS -- MAINLY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FORECAST A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND WEAKEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THIS AREA. AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET BENEATH
MODERATE /NEAR 30 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC COMBINATION SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ERN
MT/THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 08/06/2008
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