SWODY3
SPC AC 110722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME /ANCHORED BY VORTEX OVER ERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC/ WILL EXIST OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH
AMPLIFIED RIDGING ALONG THE W COAST. A SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS BROADER PATTERN...THE MOST
NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
DEVELOP NEWD FROM ERN AL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
...GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE MUCH MORE INTENSE/DYNAMIC THAN THAT OF
THE GFS/NAM. WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME GIVEN WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE VERY MOIST. OF MORE IMPORTANCE...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE SEASONABLY STRONG GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM. THUS...IT APPEARS SETUP MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG AND E OF HIGHER TERRAIN. DIURNAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND/OR LEE TROUGH WITHIN AN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STRONGLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.
..MEAD.. 08/11/2008
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