DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140713
SWODY3
SPC AC 140711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE IN THE NE...AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO CNTRL
U.S. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO MID MS VALLEY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ALONG AND S OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
REGIONS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN THE STRONGEST OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WHERE ELY/NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO
UPPER LOW.

GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EVENTUAL
DISTRIBUTION OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THEREFORE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED
IN THIS FORECAST.

...NEW ENGLAND...

WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY WARM
AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY...RATHER COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
OF -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING WAVE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HAIL GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..MEAD.. 08/14/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.