SWODY3
SPC AC 190711
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ND...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO NRN ND TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHARPEN LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS BEFORE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SURGES INTO WRN ND BY 22/12Z. SFC DEW POINTS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S BEFORE STRONG HEATING AND MIXING
RESULT IN A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL DROP RH VALUES
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC
PARCELS MAY NOT REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ACROSS SD...DESPITE
READINGS EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THIS IS WHERE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR...INITIALLY ALONG ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA/SERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH TIME A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO ND. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
WOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING BACK INTO CANADA.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE SPARSE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS OF THE U.S. AND ANY MEANINGFUL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SRN CANADA.
..DARROW.. 08/19/2008
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