SWODY3
SPC AC 240704
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35
KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE NRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
IF CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION.
..BROYLES.. 08/24/2008
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