SWOD48
SPC AC 060847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2008
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM A GENERAL PERSPECTIVE IN MAINTAINING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO BECOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AT SMALLER SCALES
BEGINNING DAYS 5 AND 6 /SUN. AND MON. AUG. 10 AND 11/. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...THE GFS MAINTAINS A SURFACE TROUGH IN LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE THE ECMWF
TAKES A SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
SEVERE FORECAST BEYOND DAY 4 /SAT. AUG. 9/.
DAY 4...MODELS HINT THAT ONE AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
ATTM TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A THREAT AREA.
..GOSS.. 08/06/2008
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