SWOD48
SPC AC 080827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A
RIDGE RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. ON D4 /MON AUG
11TH/...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND MN SWD INTO NEB/KS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST DAY THREE DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS
THAT THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LAG THE INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE
W...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
BY D5 /TUE AUG 12TH/ OR D6 /WED AUG 13TH/...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
ON THE HANDLING OF A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
ALBERTA. THE GFS TAKES THIS FEATURE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS...THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW MORE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA AND EVENTUALLY SEWD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THEREFORE...NO AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED.
..MEAD.. 08/08/2008
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