SWOD48
SPC AC 090848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN BOTH GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND MEDIUM-RANGE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM
PATTERN...NAMELY OVER THE CNTRL STATES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT OF AN INTENSE
UPPER LOW FROM S-CNTRL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST ON DAYS 6 /THU AUG
14TH/ AND 7 /FRI AUG 15TH/. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS HAS SHOWN LITTLE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE LATEST RUN SUGGESTING SOME
INDICATION OF A MUCH WEAKER LOW FOLLOWING A TRACK SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE ECMWF. THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC DATA SETS ARE
ALSO EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS WHICH SHOW CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN MEMBER SOLUTIONS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND NO REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL
BE DELINEATED.
..MEAD.. 08/09/2008
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