SWOD48
SPC AC 110826
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION OF A DEEP LOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. WHILE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL DATA SETS HAVE SHOWN SLIGHTLY MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...
INTER-MODEL DIFFERENCES DO EXIST. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
EVENTUALLY FARTHER TO THE SW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW
WHEN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND A NUMBER OF MEDIUM-RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION...AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES AND EVENTUALLY EWD THROUGH THE MS/OH VALLEYS...LIKELY
FOCUSING SEVERAL TSTM EPISODES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
ON D4 /THU AUG 14TH/...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS...ENCOUNTERING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WITH
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
OVER PARTS OF SRN NEB...KS AND ERN CO. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT LIKELY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
SWD/SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
BEYOND D4...CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE AND
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECREASE OWING TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
MODEL DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS
WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM.
..MEAD.. 08/11/2008
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