SWOD48
SPC AC 180832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OF MT/DAKOTAS
THURSDAY...WITH EWD ADVANCEMENT EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THIS REGION...MUCH OF THE STRONGER FLOW WILL LAG THE SFC WIND SHIFT.
ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG A NARROW AXIS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT
INTRODUCE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME
FRAME...HOWEVER INCREASED MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
SEVERE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT.
..DARROW.. 08/18/2008
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