SWOD48
SPC AC 240829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE NRN U.S. EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS BRING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK. THIS
MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT IS
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE AREA OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG
WITH AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE TOO GREAT TO
WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ATTM. LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK...A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH TIME DURING THE LATER HALF OF
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 08/24/2008
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