SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040203
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-040400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 040203Z - 040400Z
TSTMS FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GRADUALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS CENTRAL MT...MOVING/EXPANDING EWD OVER DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BAROCLINIC ZONE -- REINFORCED IN MANY AREAS
BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER AND ONGOING CONVECTION -- FROM NEAR GGW SWD
OVER NRN ROSEBUD COUNTY THEN SWWD NEAR BIL. THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER
DIFFUSE AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS ERN MT WHILE
DRIFTING SWD INVOF I-94 E OF BIL. LONG LASTING WSW-ENE ALIGNED
PLUME OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...IN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER
ABOUT 03Z...SELY LLJ 30-35 KT FCST TO DEVELOP NWWD ACROSS SD TOWARD
ERN MT...LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING BUOYANCY ABOVE SFC WITH ELEVATED
MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING UNTIL THEN...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
MCS AS DISCUSSED IN LATEST DAY-1 OUTLOOK. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
BEFORE THAT MOISTENING WILL BE DRY AIR NEAR SFC AND RELATED LACK OF
MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPES REMAINING AOB 500 J/KG MOST
AREAS.
..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
46091228 46700957 47890708 48030508 47300344 45920333
45250574 45210923 45341009
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