SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040406
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-040530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO...NWRN KS...SWRN-CENTRAL NEB.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 803...
VALID 040406Z - 040530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 803
CONTINUES.
SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 345Z INDICATES FRONT FROM NEAR SUX SWWD THROUGH
LXN...STILL DRIFTING SWD AS COLD FRONT...THEN BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY SWWD TO INTERSECTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NRN
HITCHCOCK COUNTY NEB. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM LINCOLN
COUNTY NEB SWD OVER THOMAS COUNTY KS THEN SWWD INTO EXTREME
E-CENTRAL CO. BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...BUT FASTER
ACROSS NEB PORTION.
TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED OR DISSIPATED OVER MOST OF REGION EXCEPT FOR
CLUSTER EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS LINCOLN/HAYES/PERKINS COUNTIES NEB
AS OF 345Z...JUST BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ISOLATED HAIL AND
STG-SVR GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE TSTMS AS WELL AS WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF THAT PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING
REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...A PROCESS ACTING TO MAXIMIZE
SLOPE OF ASSOCIATED DENSITY CURRENT AND LIFT THEREON. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG BUOYANCY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONT...AS MUCAPES INCREASE RAPIDLY TO OVER 3000 J/KG FOR
PARCELS THAT CAN BE FORCED TO LFC. CONVECTION FARTHER S INVOF KS/CO
BORDER SHOULD REMAIN WEAKER...WITH MORE MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
BUOYANT INFLOW AIR MASS LOCATED FARTHER NE OVER NEB...ALONG AND N OF
SFC FRONT. ACCORDINGLY...PER COORDINATION W/GLD...KS PORTION WW AND
SWRN TIER OF NEB COUNTIES ALONG BORDER ARE BEING PULLED FROM WW.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD POOL FARTHER N...WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E
BEHIND MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION IN NEB AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
39800258 41760064 42889910 42209826 40859883 40000023
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