MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2042

ACUS11 KWNS 071454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071453
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-071630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL AL AND GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071453Z - 071630Z

THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST AS STORMS
INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES
LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
A WW.

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW SPREADING INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF
MUSCLE SHOALS/FLORENCE AL...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BETWEEN NOW AND
18-19Z. AS THIS OCCURS...COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE
ONGOING STORM CLUSTER APPEARS PROBABLE INTO/THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. AND...THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A STRENGTHENING COLD
POOL. IF THIS OCCURS...20 KT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
FORWARD STORM PROPAGATION...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG ITS GUST FRONT. THIS COULD AFFECT
PARTS OF THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA AS EARLY AS 18-20Z.

..KERR.. 08/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

35018697 35208625 35148562 34968471 34568396 33908349
33478406 33328562 33478656 33548689 33898742 34398770
34678741

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