MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2043

ACUS11 KWNS 071534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071534
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-071730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071534Z - 071730Z

AT LEAST A MARGINAL OR HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT A SEASONABLY COLD
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WITH SURFACE HEATING. COUPLED WITH BROAD LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...AN
INCREASE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW ALREADY UNDERWAY
FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. THIS AREA IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AND...A STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT... DEVELOPING WITH STRONGER HEATING
NEAR SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND...COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.

STORMS PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN
NUMBER THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AS
FORCING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IN
SOMEWHAT CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AT LEAST
SHORT-LIVED MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
CELLS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL AND FOCUS FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AND...ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS AND ANY
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREATS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED.

..KERR.. 08/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

42877892 43127789 43157684 44167561 44587387 43407175
42177133 41457178 40967459 41227661 41737887

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