SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090457
KSZ000-COZ000-090630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090457Z - 090630Z
AN MCS IN NE CO WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO WRN KS. A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT CAN BE
EXPECTED...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE GREATER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT.
A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD TOWARD E CENTRAL CO AND WRN KS. THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED SOME WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED RATHER MODEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STILL...THIS CONVECTION
IS BEING FED BY A 30 KT SSELY LLJ THAT IS ORIENTED ALONG THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY
WEAK FOR THE TIME OF NIGHT. EXPECT THE STORM CLUSTER TO PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN ERN CO...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA FROM NW INTO CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD DEVELOP SUPERCELL OR BOWING SEGMENT
STRUCTURES GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE MOIST
PROFILES/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL
BE MARGINAL. ADDITIONALLY... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50-1.75
INCHES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
..THOMPSON.. 08/09/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
39660102 39059981 38539993 38060099 38070219 38230286
38790358 39080343 39250264 39790204
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