SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091451
FLZ000-091645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091451Z - 091645Z
THE RISK FOR GUSTY AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA
...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE...BETWEEN NOW AND 18-19Z. SOME HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS...IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. AND...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS...AIDED BY AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.
WITH 20-25 KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST...LIKELY ENHANCING THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
EASTERN COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MIAMI AND MELBOURNE BECOMES MORE FULLY
MIXED BY 18-19Z. AN OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOWS...PROBABLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
..KERR.. 08/09/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
25988149 26878151 28128116 28288058 27167997 26318004
25258037 25198110
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