SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091604
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-091730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN LWR MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091604Z - 091730Z
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED. BUT...TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A SEASONABLY STRONG/COLD CLOSED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS A
BIT UNCLEAR. A RELATIVELY COOL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST
MOISTURE LEVELS IS SUPPRESSING DESTABILIZATION...AND IT APPEARS
MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY ONLY APPROACH 1000 J/KG IN LOCALIZED POCKETS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EVIDENT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THE INITIATION OF STORMS SEEMS
POSSIBLE BY THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
FOCUSED FROM THE DETROIT/FLINT VICINITIES INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF
PORT HURON...WHERE STRONGEST HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING. THOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION MAY REMAIN MODERATE AT BEST...COUPLED
WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO.
..KERR.. 08/09/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
41718236 41598338 41668487 41838583 42508613 42958601
43248556 43448326 43718219
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