SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100355
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-100600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 100355Z - 100600Z
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OK...MUCH OF NWRN AR AND EXTREME
SWRN MO.
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE HAD PUSHED AN EFFECTIVE
FRONT/BOUNDARY SLOWLY SWWD TODAY...AND AT 03Z...EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM SWRN AR NWWD INTO THE OKC AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING
SEWD THROUGH KS AND RESULTING IN A 25-30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
CENTRAL/WRN OK. HOWEVER AS THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD...THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER AND SPREAD STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/LIFT FROM SRN KS/NERN OK SEWD INTO NWRN AR. ALL MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES...PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF NUMEROUS STORMS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST
PCPN MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY SW OF THE LOCATION DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.
..IMY.. 08/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
34909453 35139501 35649508 36079499 36599447 36659386
36369286 35909277 35249309 34949354 34819392
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