SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111456
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-111700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111456Z - 111700Z
GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW
ISSUANCE.
MODEST INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA ATTM IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS FROM
ERN PA ACROSS NJ AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND ATTM. PRESENCE OF UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD POOL COMBINED WITH SOME HEATING
THROUGH CLEARINGS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL YIELD FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...AS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE LOW CENTER -- NOW INDICATED OVER ERN
PA -- SHOULD RESIDE GENERALLY OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS -- AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER -- TO REMAIN LIMITED. ATTM HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD/MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER GUSTS COULD
WARRANT THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..GOSS.. 08/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
40457588 40857576 41697475 41967217 42587043 41726959
41157004 40467367 39507407 39967563
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