SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130715
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-130815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL...N FL...S GA AND SE AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 130715Z - 130815Z
THREATS FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY MID-LVL IMPULSE AMPLIFYING
ACROSS W AL/S MS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST
REGION SINCE 06Z. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD
TOWARD THE SE ATLC CST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN INCREASING BAND
OF 40+ KT WSW H7-H5 FLOW /AS CONFIRMED BY MOBILE VWP/. HIGH PWAT
AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM AND MARKED INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING TSTMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST FROM THE FL PNHDL NEWD INTO EXTREME SRN GA/NRN FL
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THOUGH AREAS FROM SE AL INTO CNTRL GA ARE
CURRENTLY COMPARATIVELY MORE STABLE FROM YESTERDAY/S
CONVECTION...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY VORT MAX
THROUGH SUNRISE.
DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL ATTM...WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH MATURE N-S ORIENTED STORMS. BUT...AS THE APCHG
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...MODEST BACKING IN THE NEAR
SFC-LAYER MAY AUGMENT LOW-LVL SRH SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN INCREASING
TORNADO THREAT.
..RACY.. 08/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
30078716 31988560 32138402 31928279 30508217 30058220
29568349 29408400 29348543
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