MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2100

ACUS11 KWNS 160348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160348
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-160445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 834...

VALID 160348Z - 160445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 834
CONTINUES.

A SEVERE THREAT LOCATED IN NE NM AND NEAR THE TX STATELINE SW OF
DALHART SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. WW 834 HAS
BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED SEWD INTO THE AMARILLO AREA.

03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN NE NM
WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXISTING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING JUST
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND IS JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ANALYZED BY THE RUC ROTATING AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE LATEST PROFILER FROM TUCUMCARI HAS AN
IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILE WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN 40 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY HAS WEAKENED SOME...THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL/LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS DRIFTING
SEWD INTO THE AMARILLO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER.

..BROYLES.. 08/16/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

33120492 33120527 33260528 33290574 33400573 33380637
33630640 33650601 33810605 33800590 34250590 34260645
34860649 34860613 35030619 35040573 36020569 36040551
36200544 36310535 36730536 36800520 36960528 36970570
37290573 37510555 37640531 37420514 37240515 37380493
37370478 37790434 37720401 37620407 37640203 36500205
36480220 34750217 34760301 34960304 34970322 34580370
34610393 34110391 34090413 34010414 33990476 34110477
34100490

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