MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2127

ACUS11 KWNS 211520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211520
FLZ000-211815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN TO E-CENTRAL FL.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 211520Z - 211815Z

PRIMARY INNER BAND OF TS FAY SHOULD PERSIST AND MAY EXPAND SOMEWHAT
AS IT SHIFTS NWD/NWWD ACROSS REMAINDER ST JOHNS COUNTY AND OVER MUCH
OF CLAY/DUVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z...INCLUDING JAX METRO. BAND ALSO
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS NASSAU/BAKER/UNION/BRADFORD COUNTIES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. GEN RAIN RATES 1-1.5 INCH/HOUR ARE QUITE LIKELY...WITH
LOCALIZED/EMBEDDED VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HOUR.

BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TYPICALLY MOIST FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE SETTING WITH PW EXCEEDING 2.25 INCH ENTIRE AREA AND MEAN LOW
LEVEL MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 17 G/KG. GPS PW READINGS 2.6-2.9 INCHES
HAVE BEEN NOTED BETWEEN MLB AND ST AUGUSTINE DURING LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED WITH INNER BAND
INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM ST JOHNS SWWD ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY THEN
SSEWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN LAKE COUNTY. NHC FCST NWWD-WNWWD TURN OF
CENTER INDICATES THAT ORIENTATION OF INLAND PORTION OF BAND WITH
RESPECT TO THAT MOTION WILL PIVOT ABOUT SOME POINT NEAR VOLUSIA/LAKE
COUNTY LINE...NOT COUNTING ANY MINOR EXPANSION/CONTRACTION OF
SYSTEM. NET EFFECT FOR MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN PURPOSES WILL BE
CONTINUED TRAINING OF EMBEDDED CORES ACROSS PORTIONS
PUTNAM/MARION/LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES...EXACERBATING HEAVY RAIN HAZARD
IN THOSE AREAS. SLOW TRANSLATIONAL MOTION OF FAY ALSO SHOULD
SUPPORT TRAINING OF EMBEDDED ECHOES ACROSS AREAS FARTHER
N...INCLUDING JAX VICINITY.

..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

30718144 30568177 30118203 29548197 29098169 28968147
28908127 28878104 29148135 29498162 29918153 30048130
30478141

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