SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212033
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-212230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212033Z - 212230Z
WW MAY BE NECESSARY. SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LATER
CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH TWO PRIMARY
REGIMES...
1. SVR GUST POTENTIAL FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT...WHICH IS
FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS INITIALLY WEAK/MRGL
BUOYANCY INCREASES IN FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER. STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NWRN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ALONG WITH LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
STRONGLY MIXED SUBCLOUD/INFLOW LAYERS AHEAD OF CONVECTION.
DEVELOPMENT OF AMALGAMATED COLD POOL MAY OCCUR WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM
STG AMBIENT WINDS ALOFT...LEADING TO ORGANIZED WIND THREAT
SPREADING/MOVING EWD.
2. POTENTIAL FOR INITIALLY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT INVOF DRYLINE OVER
WRN ND...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING GENERALLY EWD INTO FAVORABLY
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...THEN INTO
MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LATER DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. WAVY
DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM VICINITY NRN PORTION MT/ND BORDER SSEWD
ACROSS WRN SD TO WEAK MESOLOW JUST E 2WX...THEN SEWD BETWEEN
PHP-PIR. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX SLIGHTLY FARTHER EWD OVER SD WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF LOW AND OVER SWRN ND. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CINH...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY VIS TRENDS OF
INCREASING DEPTH/COVERAGE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION FROM HARDING COUNTY
SD NWD THROUGH DUNN COUNTY ND. STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS
WITH HEIGHT W AND NE OF LOW...AND E OF SFC TROUGH ANALYZED INTO SWRN
MB...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT POSSIBLE. EWN TRANSLATION OF
AFOREMENTIONED MT REGIME INTO THIS AREA IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
45261148 46361112 47180898 48080565 48020366 48120218
48760097 48030078 46530085 45580213 45190699
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