MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2161

ACUS11 KWNS 261217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261216
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-261345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AL...WRN/NRN GA...FL PANHANDLE...THE
WRN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...

VALID 261216Z - 261345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 865 CONTINUES.

WHILE IT APPEARS THAT A NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED AT THE SCHEDULED
14Z EXPIRATION OF WW 865...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY IS IN THE
PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF BIRMINGHAM. THIS IS
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AN INITIAL IMPULSE
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ANOTHER IMPULSE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE...A
ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS NOW LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. AND...AS THIS CONTINUES
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE TRAILING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE/SHEAR AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER AFTER 14Z.

HOWEVER...BENEATH A LINGERING 40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JETLET PROGGED
TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...A MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED
TORNADOES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL AT
LEAST BECOME MAXIMIZED AND FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION. HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE.
BUT...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY MITIGATE OR AT
LEAST SLOW THE ONSET OF THIS POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 08/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...

30418569 31318518 31998500 32788491 33688530 34218583
34828573 35028421 35528183 34678090 33778127 33318235
32968280 31848375 30028513

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.