SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270940
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-271115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA...PARTS OF NW MO...NE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270940Z - 271115Z
RECENT NEW VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOWER/
MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS FOCUSED IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A FASTER/STRONGER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES.
MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING COULD PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR THE STRONGEST NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...PERHAPS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NOSE OF AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION. ACTIVITY SPREADING
AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN LESS FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY.
GIVEN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000+ J/KG...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS/DIMINISHES DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. BUT...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION IS IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMIZING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 08/27/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
42699653 43279604 43399418 42969300 41729317 41059419
40599442 40039459 39809584 41409679
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