SWODY1
SPC AC 242133
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2008
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OUTERBANKS NC...
SFC LOW LOCATED 200NM SE OF KILM MAY BE ACQUIRING TRPCL CHARACTER
THIS AFTN AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW WNW MOTION TONIGHT. AS
IT COMES CLOSER TO THE CST...HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS LOCATED
OFFSHORE SHOULD SPREAD WWD TOWARD THE NC OUTERBANKS BY 12Z...BUT
MOSTLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY LOW
TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR LATE NIGHT...AS ANY STRONGER STORM THAT
CAN MANAGE TO FORM WITHIN NRN QUADRANT OF THE STORM WILL BE EMBEDDED
IN INCREASING LOW-LVL SHEAR.
...CNTRL/NRN PLNS...
CDFNT THAT FOLLOWED THE UPR IMPULSE MOVING INTO ONTARIO HAS SETTLED
TO A 19Z POSITION FROM LKMI SWWD TO ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER.
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR MULTICELL STORMS FROM LWR MI SWWD INTO
MO. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
FARTHER W...TAIL-END OF THE FRONT WAS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED...WITH
PROFILERS SHOWING LLVL FLOW TURNING SELY. THIS HAS ADVECTED UPR
50S-LWR 60S SFC DEW POINTS BACK INTO SRN NEB/WRN KS AMIDST STRONG
HEATING. THE RESULT HAS BEEN FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000
J/KG...BUT CINH WAS ALSO RATHER STRONG. VSBL SATL SHOWS EVIDENCE OF
CU/TCU DVLPG OVER ERN CO...SW NEB AND WRN KS BENEATH THE CAP.
CONTINUED HEATING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO ERODE THE CAP LATER THIS AFTN WITH WDLY SCT TSTMS PSBL OVER THESE
AREAS. STRONG VEERING IN THE LWST FEW KILOMETERS IS SUPPORTING
25-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GIVEN MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLD TSTMS COULD GIVE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD LARGELY BE DIURNALLY-ENHANCED AND WEAKEN
AND/OR TRANSITION INTO ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD INTO THE MO VLY BY 12Z ALONG THE AXIS OF A SWLY
LLJ.
..RACY/KIS.. 09/24/2008
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