SWODY1
SPC AC 031224
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH...
...SRN MO/AR/LA/WRN MS...
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES FROM FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR NNEWD INTO NRN
AR/SRN MO TONIGHT...ACCELERATING AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN
WESTERLIES DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INVOF CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY A NEUTRAL/MOIST-ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
OCCASIONAL/TEMPORARY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AWAY FROM THE CENTER WILL
ALLOW LIMITED HEATING/MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
SYSTEM/S ERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOMEWHAT-MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION EVOLVING THROUGH THE DAY IN OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER DIURNAL INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN NEARER THE GULF COAST
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER HEATING WILL SUSTAIN MODEST SBCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THIS REGION...SFC-1 KM SRH WILL
REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS/THREAT OF TORNADOES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL CENTER FINALLY PULLS NEWD LATE TONIGHT.
...FRONT RANGE OF CO INTO ERN WY...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
EAST CO/WY FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE RELATIVELY
DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THEREFORE...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES MAY INDUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND
SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER... OVERALL MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO HINDER
OVERALL THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 09/03/2008
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