SWODY1
SPC AC 110540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...AZ...
POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SWRN
U.S. INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...BIMODAL LOW STRUCTURES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS SRN CA/NRN BAJA
AND NEAR THE ID/UT/WY BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. UNTIL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE LOWER DESERTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
AZ STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW MODEST INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
1000-1500 J/KG CAPE COULD EASILY DEVELOP WHERE DEW POINTS HOLD IN
THE 50S. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN
SWLY FLOW REGIME WHERE H5 FLOW WILL BE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 20KT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
...ELSEWHERE...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM
CO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12/00Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN
MEXICO...NEWD ACROSS WEST TX INTO WI WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES. ANOTHER ZONE OF CONCENTRATED DEEP
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY...SEWD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA. IN THE ABSENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OR MEANINGFUL SHEAR
EACH OF THE REGIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
UNPREDICTABLE LOCAL WET MICROBURSTS.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 09/11/2008
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