SWODY1
SPC AC 151246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN AND A TROUGH OVER THE GRT
LKS/OH VLY. ERN TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
MOVING SE INTO MN. AS THIS OCCURS...REMNANT OF HRCN IKE AND
TRAILING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE LWR GRT LKS WILL
CONTINUE RAPIDLY NE INTO FAR ERN CANADA. FARTHER S...HIGH LVL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL GULF EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY INTO TUESDAY AS
SRN PART OF AMPLIFYING MN IMPULSE REACHES THE OZARKS/LWR TN VLY.
...SERN U.S...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LWR GRT LKS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SETTLE
SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLN TODAY/TONIGHT.
FRONT SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AS WSWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INDUCES
DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH OVER REGION.
LARGE SCALE UVV OVER THE SERN STATES WILL BE MINIMAL...LARGELY
CONFINED TO WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF NERN U.S.
JET STREAK. NEVERTHELESS...SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AFTN STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...AND
ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE CAROLINAS. MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH SBCAPE TO 2500 J/KG...COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SC AND SRN/ERN
NC. BUT MODEST CLOUD LAYER FLOW...BACKING WITH HEIGHT...AND FAIRLY
WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED SVR TSTMS
ARE NOT LIKELY.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 09/15/2008
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