SWODY1
SPC AC 250042
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2008
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...
CLUSTER OF SURFACE BASED STORMS PERSISTS ACROSS WRN KS AND EXTREME
SRN NEB WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEST WLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH 15-20 KT AT 6 KM AND VEERING DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR...AND UPDRAFT ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH SOME STORMS. HOWEVER...LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS
SPREADS HAVE RESULTED IN MOSTLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS. HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES AND DECOUPLES.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM NEB NWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND WRN MN WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NWD
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...NC COAST...
SFC LOW LOCATED 200NM SE OF KILM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW WNW
MOTION TONIGHT. AS IT COMES CLOSER TO THE CST...HIGHER THETA-E AIR
MASS LOCATED OFFSHORE SHOULD SPREAD WWD TOWARD THE NC OUTER BANKS BY
12Z...BUT MOSTLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE
VERY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR LATE NIGHT...AS ANY STRONGER
STORM THAT MANAGE TO FORM WITHIN NRN QUADRANT OF THE STORM WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN INCREASING LOW-LVL SHEAR.
..DIAL.. 09/25/2008
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