SWODY1
SPC AC 260056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2008
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NC AND EXTREME SE
VA...
...NC COASTAL AREA THROUGH EXTREME SE VA...
SURFACE BOUNDARY DEMARCATING MARITIME TROPICAL AIR FROM MORE STABLE
AIR INLAND ACROSS NC EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF WILMINGTON
NWD TO NEAR ELIZABETH CITY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY WNWWD. THE 00Z RAOB FROM
MOREHEAD CITY SAMPLED THE WARM SECTOR WITH MODERATE MUCAPE BUT WITH
NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE
STABLE LAYER. LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY WILL PERSIST NEAR AND JUST EAST OF BOUNDARY. RADAR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING HAS SHOWN UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN A FEW
CELLS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL SLIGHT RISK FOR THE THREAT OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL
THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.
...NRN MN...
A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXISTS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. A STRENGTHENING
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKER
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF EML ACROSS NERN MN. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..DIAL.. 09/26/2008
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