SWODY1
SPC AC 281958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2008
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...
...NEB AND VICINITY...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE
ATTM...WHILE A WARM FRONT BISECTS NEB FROM NW-SE. EARLIER STORMS --
DRIVEN LARGELY BY WARM ADVECTION/QG FORCING -- HAVE WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS YET
TO OCCUR INVOF THE COLD FRONT.
EVENTUALLY...COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HEATING AND UVV SHOULD WEAKEN
THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LATER...A FURTHER EXPANSION OF STORMS NEAR
AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR...AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT -- IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EXISTING MODERATE INSTABILITY -- TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS. THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS IS APPARENT WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT --
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES FAVORED
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER NERN NEB AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY REGION.
..GOSS.. 09/28/2008
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