SWODY1
SPC AC 270544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF MODERATE WLYS WILL PERSIST FROM PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME
WILL MOVE THROUGH WI AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH WI AND IA WITH TRAILING END OF THIS
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WRN
NC IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT SLOWLY NEWD.
...WI THROUGH IA...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL
PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH WI.
A FEW STORMS MAY FORM IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER WI WHERE FRONTAL
FORCING SHOULD BE AUGMENTED SLIGHTLY BY ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT SHOULD THE GLANCE NRN END OF WARM SECTOR. SWWD EXTENT OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER FORCING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH RESULTING MODEST BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SMALL HAIL OR STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
...MID ATLANTIC...
MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD INLAND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
FROM ERN VA THROUGH SRN NJ. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN THIS
REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE UPPER LOW AND
ITS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SYSTEM SHEARS NEWD...AND
HODOGRAPHS SIZE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN PROBABLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF
NEWD LIFTING VORT MAX...BUT EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..DIAL/JEWELL.. 09/27/2008
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