DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071611
SWODY1
SPC AC 071608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2008

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN CO...SRN NE AND
NRN KS...

...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS NRN CONUS FROM ROCKIES EWD TO GREAT
LAKES. WHILE ONE IMPULSE/MID LEVEL WIND MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS GREAT
LAKES TODAY ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THRU MT
WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MT SYSTEM...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z WITH SWLY 40-50KT OF 850MB FLOW
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. GFS/NAM IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY VICINITY SWRN NE/KS...PRIMARILY
AFTER 06Z...IN THE STRONG WAA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SETUP BY THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND ELEVATED CAPE AOA 1000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH SHEAR OF 40-50KT IN THE CLOUD BEARING REGION...A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT
AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z. STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD IN THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ BY 12Z MON ACROSS SRN NE/NRN KS.

...GREAT LAKES...
S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-18 TO -20C AT 500MB/ AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ...WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG AND
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL IN
STRONGER CELLS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

..NM/WEST TX...
A LOW LATITUDE IMPULSE WILL LIFT NEWD/NWD FROM NWRN MEXICO THROUGH
NM INTO WRN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SOME HAIL.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 09/07/2008

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