SWODY1
SPC AC 061608
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2008
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL DE/NJ AND COASTAL SRN
NEW ENGLAND...
...COASTAL DE/NJ SRN NEW ENGLAND...
REF MCD 2227
WEAKENING T.S. HANNA AT 16Z MOVING NNEWD ACROSS SERN VA AND
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SRN NJ BY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BANDS HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE GREATER THREAT OF
TORNADOS. HOWEVER A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE STILL STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL PERSIST JUST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF HANNA THRU THIS AFTERNOON INTO SRN NJ.
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER CROSSES FAR SERN NEW ENGLAND IT WILL BE
PRECEEDED BY A WINDOW OF FAVORABLE SHEAR. THUS WILL CONTINUE A
SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SERN MA
FOR TONIGHT.
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX
ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REINFORCED BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MADE IT AS FAR S AS NWRN AR SWWD TO SRN TX PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND TROUGHING TO LEE
OF SRN ROCKIES...EFFECTIVE E/W BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTING BACK TO
NEAR KS/OK BORDER.
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ERN OK/KS BORDER AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET THRU THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...ONCE
AGAIN 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WARM
ADVECTION/FORCING FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS AND EXTREME NRN OK. SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STEEP ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT...THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL S OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE THE SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL AS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF
FRONT...AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK. HOWEVER WITH
MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 1500-2000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THRU
THE 80S...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
VICINITY AND JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE. STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE
MULTICELLULAR GIVEN THE MARGINAL KINEMATICS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
PRIMARY THREAT.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 09/06/2008
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