SWODY1
SPC AC 181239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2008
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SRN CANADA THIS
PERIOD...CONTINUING THE FAIRLY QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE LWR
48. A WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE GRT BASIN TO THE
SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY...AND FROM THE NERN GULF INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
...SRN CA/LWR CO VLY INTO ERN GRT BASIN/RCKYS...
SOME MOISTURE /PW AOA 1 INCH/ WILL REMAIN OVER THE LWR CO VLY AND
SRN CA TODAY...OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE OVER MOST OF THE
WEST. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP OVER THE LWR CO
VLY GIVEN ITS LOCATION ON S SIDE OF SRN STREAM JET. BUT COMBINATION
OF MODERATE MOISTURE WITH STRONG HEATING/TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS MAY NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT A FEW AFTN STORMS.
FARTHER N...SCTD HIGH-BASED DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED OVER ERN PARTS
OF THE GRT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS. THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIE
BENEATH OR N OF SRN STREAM JET...WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
RELATIVELY STEEP AND SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST INVOF WEAK
UPR LVL DISTURBANCES.
...NRN PLNS INTO NRN MN...
LEE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN DAKS SHOULD SHIFT E WITH TIME AS A
PASSING IMPULSE IN THE WLYS CROSSES SK/MB. CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME EML CAP AND LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLD SPOTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER FROM ERN WY NEWD INTO NRN MN. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSTMS MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
OVER ERN ND AND NRN/CNTRL MN AS LLJ STRENGTHENS/VEERS IN RESPONSE TO
CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPR DISTURBANCE.
...FL...
HIGH PWS...ELY LOW LVL FLOW...AND MODEST DEEP WIND PROFILES WILL
MAINTAIN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF DIURNAL STORMS OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. PROPAGATION COMPONENT TO STORM MOTION MAY BE MORE
ERRATIC THAN YESTERDAY...GIVEN MORE COMPLEX WIND PROFILES.
..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/18/2008
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