SWODY1
SPC AC 081954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2008
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S FL...
...LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...
THIS AFTERNOON A SHALLOW COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NM THROUGH THE
NW TX PANHANDLE...SE KS...CNTRL MO...S CNTRL IL AND NEWD INTO CNTRL
MI. VWP DATA INDICATE THE FRONT IS SHALLOW ALONG MUCH OF ITS LENGTH
WITH A DEPTH GENERALLY AOB 1 KM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE HEATING HAS OCCURRED
IN MOIST PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM SE KS THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MO AND
SRN IL WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.
INITIAL SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER S CNTRL IL APPEAR
TO HAVE INITIATED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN FRONTAL ZONE RESULTING FROM A MIGRATORY LOW LEVEL JET ATTENDING
NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVERGENCE IS MORE LIMITED FARTHER
SW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW BANDS OF CUMULUS FROM SERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO.
STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A WEAK CAP
REMAINING AND AS DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING IMPULSE OVER WRN OK SPREADS
NEWD. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN THREATS. LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN POST FRONTAL
ZONE.
...S FL...
HURRICANE IKE CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CUBA IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO
CONTINUE A WNWWD TRACK THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. SOME OF THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS ATTENDING THIS STORM ARE AFFECTING THE SRN FL
PENINSULA. LATEST VWPS SHOW DEEP LAYER ELY FLOW IN THIS REGION WITH
LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS. SOME INCREASE
IN HODOGRAPH SIZE AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE KEYS AS THE STORM CONTINUES WNWWD...BUT BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
PARTICULARLY ROBUST.
..DIAL/KISS.. 09/08/2008
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