SWODY1
SPC AC 081602
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2008
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF S FL INCLUDING THE
KEYS...
...MID MS VALLEY...
SHALLOW BUT STRONG COLD FRONT BEING REINFORCED BY OVERNIGHT ELEVATED
CONVECTION AT 15Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR UIN WSWWD TO S OF MKC/ICT/DHT
LINE. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING S THE WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON
WILL BE MINIMALLY IMPACTED BY THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE N.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SPREADING NEWD IN ADVANCE
OF WEAK SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH INTO OK...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
HEATING ACROSS SRN MO INTO IL S OF FRONTAL BAND ALLOWING MLCAPES TO
CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON.
AS SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 80S CINH SHOULD WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
VICINITY FRONTAL BAND FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. WITH
30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALONG WITH 7C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL
WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
SINCE FRONTAL BAND IS INITIALLY QUIET SHALLOW...ELEVATED STORMS ARE
LIKELY ON THE COLD SIDE WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL FROM NRN OK ENEWD
INTO IL FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING.
...SOUTH FL...
HURRICANE IKE WILL TRACK WNWWD ACROSS CUBA TODAY...WITH NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT SOUTH FL BY
AFTERNOON. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS OF IKE MAY POSE A RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE KEYS AND FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 09/08/2008
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