DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081246
SWODY1
SPC AC 081243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2008

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN FL...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TODAY
WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. LARGE NOCTURNAL MCS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING OVER PARTS OF KS/MO/NEB/IA...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...AIRMASS SOUTH OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG RETREATING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER KS/MO BY MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND 30-40 KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND/OR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CORES. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL IL DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

...SOUTH FL...
HURRICANE IKE WILL TRACK WNWWD ACROSS CUBA TODAY...WITH NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT SOUTH FL BY
AFTERNOON. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS OF IKE MAY POSE A RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE KEYS AND FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...NM/WEST TX...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND WEST TX...AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS REGION. RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 20-25 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..HART/GRAMS.. 09/08/2008

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